On Monday, April 15 Cuba's Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a message asking the faithful to pray for "mothers who are struggling to feed their children," and stated that "our dear homeland is going through very difficult times," recognizing that "Cubans are suffering, crying, and lack the essentials."
The issue brings us back to the "supply" book, a government euphemism for its rationing of basic groceries.
Since only what is produced can be distributed, since the implementation of rationing the quantity and quality of the items regulated have been dwindling, and delivery times have increased.
When rationing was first implemented, Cubans received beef, chicken, oil, butter, condensed milk, toilet paper, coffee, rice, grain, and industrial products, thanks to Soviet subsidies. Currently the monthly distribution consists of seven pounds of rice (3.2 kilograms), four pounds of sugar, half a liter of soybean oil, a pack of 115 grams of "mixed coffee" (coffee with peas does not qualify as coffee, according to the International Coffee Organization, when the mixture is more than 5%; in Cuba it is 50%), five eggs, ten ounces of beans, and one pound of chicken.
Normally, rationing is a policy implemented in the face of war and natural disasters to distribute basic necessities at controlled prices. In the 20th century it was employed during World War I and World War II, and in Communist countries, such as Poland and Vietnam. In these and other cases, once the cause of its enactment had been overcome, rationing was rescinded. The fundamental reason that some countries, like Cuba, continue to implement it is their systems' productive incapacity and the control they establish over their people.
The particular case of Cuba
In January of 1959 Fidel Castro augured that "he would increase agricultural production, double the consumption capacity of the agricultural population, and achieve a standard of living for the people higher than that of any other nation." To fulfill this promise, he eliminated civil liberties, the market economy, and private property, and instituted central planning. On March 12, 1962 he stated: "However, we believe that we must generate a more Marxist spirit; and in the youth, above all, we must create something more than a socialist spirit, we must create a Communist spirit!" By "pure coincidence," on that same day, March 12, the Council of Ministers promulgated laws 1015 and 1016. The first created the ration book and a National Board with powers to stipulate the list of items to be rationed; the second, to prevent these items from being diverted, imposed mandatory commercial invoices were imposed on the sale of items, and those not covered by that document were confiscated. That is, everything indicates a close relationship between ration books and the development of a Communist spirit.
16 years later, in 1967 - without achieving an increase in production - he stated: "The day will come when fruits, vegetables, and even milk will be distributed free of charge to the whole world [...]. There will come a time, gentlemen, there will come a time when we'll also be able to tell the people: go get whatever coffee you want at the market, for free."
In 2008, faced with an unstoppable decline in production, Raúl Castro emphatically stated: "We must turn to the earth! We must make it produce!" and that food production was" a matter of the utmost national security." However, the reform measures he introduced were all based on state ownership and socialist planning. In December of 2016 a desperate National Assembly of Popular Power expressed the following: "We have to do something, and do it now, tomorrow, even if we get it wrong."
One of the manifestations of productive incapacity is the need to import more and more products. In 2020, the then second secretary of the Communist Party, José Ramón Machado Ventura, desperately called for food production because "the country cannot continue with these high levels and of food and animal feed importations, which we can produce internally."
To project a different image to the outside world, in September of 2021 Miguel Díaz-Canel, speaking at the United Nations Food Systems Summit, said: "The Cuban Government, with extraordinary efforts and despite shortcomings and difficulties, guarantees the people's universal right to food through regulated groceries, which all Cubans receive, and that includes 19 basic food products at affordable prices." That same year, however, the Ministry of Internal Trade proceeded to restrict the ration book. And in December of 2023 a new regulation reduced the period of time Cubans could spend outside the country before they were dropped from the system.
Today, sustained decline confirms that the economy cannot flourish without citizen freedoms and a market economy. With the model exhausted, mired in financial insolvency, and without sufficient foreign investment or access to capital markets; and with revenues from tourism, remittances and the hiring of professionals reduced, Cuba is at a crossroads, forced to choose between preserving or replacing the totalitarian model.
The example of Vietnam
In addition to market-economy countries, the example of Vietnam is illustrative. This country had been racked by war, going back to 1930. In its last one three times more bombs fell on its territory than those used during World War II, 15% of the population perished or was injured, 60% of the existing villages were destroyed in the south of the country, and, at the end of the conflict, it faced an external blockade and border incursions. After the planned economy system plunged the country into famine, in 1986 the Vietnamese embarked on the Doi Moi, a program based on market mechanisms, autonomous producers, and nationals' right to be entrepreneurs. This program boosted farmers' initiative, interest and responsibility. Today they produce food for their more than 100 million people, and rank second in the world in rice exports, and also in coffee (which the Cubans taught them to grow), behind Brazil. They are first in pepper. Because of these, results in 1993 the United States stopped opposing the granting of credits, in 1994 it suspended the embargo, and in 1995 it established diplomatic relations with the country.
The question is why, instead of measures like the "Guidelines," the "Ordering Task," the "Package" and visits to the municipalities, the structural reform that the country requires to eradicate rationing is not undertaken.